Americans from all corners of the economy are loving life since Trump's election by Bob Bryan | December
Americans from all corners
of the economy seem to be enjoying the conditions a lot
more since the election of Donald Trump.
Nearly every measure of consumer, business,
or executive confidence has gained in the month since the
election, according to Michelle Meyer, chief US economist
at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
"The data clearly show that consumers,
investors, and business CEOs have all become more optimistic
since the election," Meyer wrote in a note to clients
Things such as regional manufacturing indexes,
consumer confidence surveys, and investor sentiment have
ticked up since November 8. The only survey that has slid
is the ISM-adjusted Empire Manufacturing Survey, which measures
the confidence of manufacturers in New York state.
"Bottom line: Most business activity
surveys point to greater confidence following the election,"
The biggest confidence boost has come from
consumers, according to Meyer, with both the Conference
Board and Investor's Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market
Intelligence indexes hitting postrecession highs.
Investors and CEOs have seen jumps but are
still not overflowing with confidence, according to the
"However, investor and CEO confidence
are still subdued, with the former only modestly above its
average since 2010 (52.9) and the latter much below (84.1),"
This sort of upswing in confidence usually
starts to show up outside of surveys and in real data in
a short amount of time, according to Meyer's analysis. The
increases in business indexes usually point to an increase
in capital expenditures, while the consumer confidence indicators
can predict consumer spending.
Some of the correlations are
weaker than others, Meyer said, but directionally they point
to higher output for the US economy.
"Overall, we see a significant relationship
between surveys and actual output, but we would be careful
given lags and historical episodes with misleading signals,"
While it is unclear if the survey improvements
are specifically due to Trump's election or simply due to
the election uncertainty being over, it is a great sign
for the US economy.