Election
2012: Barack Obama 42%, Ron Paul 41% Rasmussen
Report - Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Pit
maverick Republican Congressman Ron Paul against President
Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up, and the race
is – virtually dead even.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone
survey of likely voters finds Obama with 42% support and Paul
with 41% of the vote. Eleven percent (11%) prefer some other
candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Ask the Political Class, though, and it’s
a blowout. While 58% of Mainstream voters favor Paul, 95%
of the Political Class vote for Obama.
But Republican voters also have decidedly
mixed feelings about Paul, who has been an outspoken critic
of the party establishment.
Obama earns 79% support from Democrats, but
Paul gets just 66% of GOP votes. Voters not affiliated with
either major party give Paul a 47% to 28% edge over the president.
Paul, an anti-big government libertarian who
engenders unusually strong feelings among his supporters,
was an unsuccessful candidate for the Republican presidential
nomination in 2008. But he continues to have a solid following,
especially in the growing Tea Party movement.
Twenty-four percent (24%) of voters now consider
themselves a part of the Tea Party movement, an eight-point
increase from a month ago. Another 10% say they are not a
part of the movement but have close friends or family members
who are.
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Thirty-nine percent (39%) of all voters have
a favorable opinion of Paul, while 30% view him unfavorably.
This includes 10% with a very favorable opinion and 12% with
a very unfavorable one. But nearly one-out-of-three voters
(32%) are not sure what they think of Paul.
Perhaps tellingly, just 42% of Republican
voters have a favorable view of him, including eight percent
(8%) with a very favorable opinion. By comparison, 42% of
unaffiliated voters regard him favorably, with 15% very favorable
toward him.
Twenty-six percent (26%) of GOP voters think
Paul shares the values of most Republican voters throughout
the nation, but 25% disagree. Forty-nine percent (49%) are
not sure.
Similarly, 27% of Republicans see Paul as
a divisive force in the party, while 30% view him as a new
direction for the GOP. Forty-two percent (42%) aren’t sure.
Among all voters, 19% say Paul shares the
values of most Republican voters, and 27% disagree. Fifty-four
percent (54%) are undecided.
Twenty-one percent (21%) of voters nationwide
regard Paul as a divisive force in the GOP. Thirty-four percent
(34%) say he is representative of a new direction for the
party. Forty-five percent (45%) are not sure.
But it’s important to note than 75% of Republicans
voters believe Republicans in Congress have lost touch with
GOP voters throughout the nation over the past several years.
Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska
and the GOP’s vice presidential nominee in 2008, is another
Republican who has been bucking the party’s traditional leadership
and was the keynote speaker at the recent Tea Party convention
in Nashville. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Republican voters
say Palin shares the values of most GOP voters throughout
the nation. Just 18% of Republicans see Palin as a divisive
force within the GOP.
Rasmussen Reports released survey findings
yesterday that take a closer look at the political views of
those who say they’re part of the Tea Party movement. Among
other things, 96% of those in the movement think America is
overtaxed, and 94% trust the judgment of the American people
more than that of America’s political leaders.
When it comes to major issues confronting
the nation, 48% of voters now say the average Tea Party member
is closer to their views than Obama is. Forty-four percent
(44%) hold the opposite view and believe the president’s views
are closer to their own.
Fifty-two percent (52%) believe the average
member of the Tea Party movement has a better understanding
of the issues facing America today than the average member
of Congress. Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters now think
Republicans and Democrats are so much alike that an entirely
new political party is needed to represent the American people.
Nearly half (47%) of voters disagree and say a new party is
not needed
If the Tea Party was organized as a political
party, 34% of voters would prefer a Democrat in a three-way
congressional race. In that hypothetical match-up, the Republican
gets 27% of the vote with the Tea Party hopeful in third at
21%. However, if only the Democrat or Republican had a real
chance to win, most of the Tea Party supporters would vote
for the Republican.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing
firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution
of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports
Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive
public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen,
president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster
for more than a decade.