The Chinese are
almost as crazy about gold as Indians—but for different
reasons by Yahoo News | March 13, 2013
We’ve discussed India’s and Russia’s
gold mania. Now it’s China’s turn. Today (Feb.
18), trading volumes for the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE)
benchmark cash contract hit an all-time high. Not that that’s
exactly surprising—as global gold prices slid 3.4%
on the global spot market last week, Chinese traders were
blissfully sipping rice wine in their hometowns while on
Lunar New Year holiday. They returned today to a buying
opportunity.
The surge prompted Market Watch to ask if China will “ride
to gold’s rescue.” Though the SGE is the world’s
biggest exchange for physical gold, the Chinese government
tightly controls it by, among other things, managing import
and export licenses (and China is the world’s biggest
producer). So its influence on global gold prices isn’t
always direct.
Still, Chinese consumers are a key force of consumer demand
for gold, accounting around a quarter of the global total,
according data just released by the World Gold Council (pdf,
p.23). That amounted to $43.3 million and 805 tonnes (887
tons). Meanwhile, the China Gold Association says China
consumed 33% more gold by weight (link in Chinese) in 2012
than it did in 2011. Here’s a look at the latest quarter:
While gold is popular in China as jewelry, it also functions
as an alternative asset to the Chinese yuan. Chinese capital
controls make it hard to change yuan for foreign currency
and invest overseas. Even though the Chinese authorities
have been slowly loosening currency exchange rules, the
vast majority of Chinese people still have limited investment
options. That’s one of the reasons that China sees
so many bizarre asset bubbles (the bad art bubble and the
pu’er tea bubble spring to mind).
Gold, therefore, is not just a hedge against inflation,
though it’s certainly that as well (paywall). It also
offers a crucial form of diversification. That may be one
reason why the Chinese government is gearing up to release
gold ETFs in China this year.
But that move is also tied to the government’s aim
of opening up its gold market to foreign investors, which
is one element of liberalizing capital controls. For instance,
by allowing yuan-denominated gold contracts to trade in
Hong Kong in 2011, the government is letting investors buy
and sell gold contracts as a way of trading yuan.
Then there’s the mystery of China’s central
bank’s gold-purchasing. Gold watchers have in the
past attributed discrepancies between the amount of gold
traded and that imported from Hong Kong to buying by the
People’s Bank of China. However, the central bank
no longer publicizes its investments, making it impossible
to verify.
Those factors don’t necessarily mean that Chinese
demand will keep gold above the psychologically important
$1,600 an ounce, below which it fell last week for the first
time in six months. But the Chinese government is promoting
gradual steps toward yuan liberalization, including expanding
the way gold can be traded. And the effect of those steps
will take a while. Which suggests Chinese people’s
need for that alternative isn’t going away any time
soon.